India’s message to the people of Pakistan

While our nation is evaluating the best course of action to pursue to punish the perpetrators of the various terrorist attacks that took place in the past year, it is also important to focus on the message that we would like to convey to the people of Pakistan. We should be clear in mind that we need to address two different parties inside Pakistan: the people and the government/ army. We should not forget the fact that till recently Pakistan was a nation ruled by a military dictator despite widespread disapproval by the people. There is a possibility that the Pakistani army is supporting terror groups targeted at India without any support from the people.

The message that we have conveyed so far to the general public in Pakistan leaves a lot to be desired. The government for its part has been allaying any fears of war between the two countries through the external affairs minister. But there have been instances where esteemed parliamentarians or defense personnel have conveyed an alternate opinion. To add to the problem the Indian media is running an opinion poll or panel discussion every other day centered on the war theme.

In the face of increase in the number of terror attacks in the past year, the government has decided to put on hold all ties with Pakistan. The message to the whole of Pakistan so far has been ‘Take action on the terrorists hiding in your country because it is good for India.’ This approach is not bound to yield favorable results. Instead we should be appealing to the Pakistani people with the message ‘Take action on the terrorists hiding in your country because it is mutually beneficial to both India and Pakistan.’

In recent times the common people in Pakistan have become victims of terrorists hiding within their own country as much as India is a victim of Pakistan based terror groups. The terror attack on Pakistan’s Marriot preceded the terror attacks on India’s Taj & Oberoi by several months. The government should bear in mind that in addition to creating destruction in India the other major goal of terrorists who carry out attacks on India is to disrupt any level of friendship from developing between India & Pakistan. In an environment of growing friendship and mutual trust between these two countries, there would be no need for the Pakistani army to wage any proxy war against India which would diminish the dependence of the Pakistani army on these terror groups which would be detrimental to the interests of these terror groups.

Therefore it is necessary for the government of India to provide every opportunity for friendship and trust to develop between the people of both the countries. As a part of this process the government should allow people to people contacts like sports and cultural events. In addition the government should advise the Indian Media not to provide too much focus on the possibility of war between the two countries.

It is important for us to keep in mind that the post-Musharaff democratic era in Pakistan is still at a nascent stage. The public support to army in Pakistan till recently was at an all time low and Musharaff relinquished his power due to adverse public opinion. Any fear of war with India will once again force the people of Pakistan to support its army which will only weaken the standing of the democratic government in Pakistan vis-à-vis the Pakistani army. Therefore it is imperative that we should help democracy in Pakistan to flourish. For this to happen, the general public in Pakistan should feel that the Indian army as less of a threat compared to the association of its own army with terror groups.

While the Indian government should continue to pressurize the Pakistani government to take action against terror groups hiding in Pakistan through diplomatic means, the message that we convey to the Pakistani people through the general media should be that India wants friendship with the people of Pakistan but the terrorists hiding in Pakistan are trying to play spoilsport.

Setting our house in order

It has been over a month since the terrorist attack on Mumbai. The nation has slowly returned to normalcy, but it will take a long time for the families of the victims to recover from the shock of losing the loved ones. There have been so many hue and cries over who owns moral responsibility for the security lapse of this scale. In a sense of owning moral responsibility as well as to lessen the public anger towards it, the ruling coalition has let go of the Chief Minister of the state and the Central home minister. These actions while being only symbolic does not address the realities on the ground.

The attack on Mumbai consists of a series of events that can be grouped into two. Group one consists of all the activities from recruitment of manpower for the terrorist organizations, training, financial assistance and choosing targets to carry out the attack. By this time, it has become more or less clear that all these activities have been performed within the territory of our neighbor Pakistan. Activities in group two consist of accessing Indian Territory & all the mayhem that the terrorists unleashed upon Mumbai.

Too much of attention of Indian politicians and Indian media has been centered on the fact that our neighboring country is a flourishing ground for terrorists aimed at destabilizing our country. However, not enough attention has been given to fact that terrorists have actually sneaked into our country to carry out their ruthless crimes. For the terrorists to have entered our country and carried out these attacks, they should have first evaded our central intelligence agencies, secondly they have sailed in the Arabian Sea evading the scrutiny and interception by Indian Navy & Coast guards and finally they actually landed in Mumbai where they took the ill-equipped State Police by surprise. The fact that they have managed to get the better of all these security layers is a little disturbing. Even more disturbing is the fact that despite having found that a similar security shortcoming allowed the 1993 Mumbai blasts, our political class and security agencies have not learnt their lessons.

There is an old saying in Chinese which goes on something like this: ‘If you slap me once, it’s your fault; if you slap me twice, it’s my fault.’ Terrorists have slapped India multiple times in the past year alone. Yet, our political class in general and the government in particular are only pointing fingers at our neighbor but are in a perennial state of self denial about the short comings of our security agencies.

To take the example from the medical world, to prevent any disease attack on the body it is necessary to address immune system of the body. Our country’s immune system consists of the eco-system of all our security establishments. However strong the terrorists trained and backed up by our neighbors are and however hard they try, if our security agencies are functioning effectively and efficiently they will not be able to carry out cold blooded murders in our soil.
In addition to pressurizing Pakistan to take action on terrorists holed out in Pakistan, it is also necessary to strengthen our security establishments. First and foremost is the need to increase the coordination between the various central security agencies and state security agencies. Secondly, the government should increase the coordination between the security establishments of the states bordering Pakistan. This coordination could be activities like sharing intelligence information, joint training, sharing of best practices etc. Thirdly we need to provide the State Police with better equipment & training. While the center has hinted on creating a national level investigating agency, it should not forget and ignore the critical role that can be played by the state police in collecting ground level information.

As the persuasion of Pakistan to take action on terrorists holed out in its territory is going to be time consuming one, the Indian government should simultaneously address the current shortcomings of our security agencies. If we succeed in this second goal we can ensure in the security of our nation irrespective of whether we succeed in the first goal.

Consequences of India’s War with Pakistan

Ever since the terrorist attacks on Mumbai took place, there have been certain sections of the public, political class and media that have been demanding military action against Pakistan or atleast a limited scale airstrikes against terrorist camps inside Pakistan.

Targeted airstrikes or military action can only be taken if there is high degree of coordination between Indian intelligence agencies and armed forces. Also the inputs from intelligence agencies should be accurate, specific and timely. As the Mumbai attacks have shown Indian Intelligence agencies and Indian Security agencies don’t see eye to eye. Also past experience says that inputs from intelligence agencies have not been timely or very specific. If the inputs from intelligence agencies turn out to be inaccurate and we end up causing harm to Pakistani civilians, we might have to face the anger of Pakistani people and international public.

We might initiate a limited scale military action against terror camps inside Pakistan but we would be risking ourselves into fighting a full-fledged war with Pakistan. India and Pakistan have fought three full scale wars in 1947, 1965 and 1971. The conflicts of 1947 and 1965 ended without decisive victories to either side. While we were victorious in 1971 and liberated Bangladesh, the long term effect has been that Bangladesh has also emerged as some source of concern for India with respect to supporting terror groups targeting India. Add to this, the fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear weapon states. If public opinion in India can force Dr. Manmohan Singh to initiate a limited scale airstrikes against terror camps inside Pakistan the same public opinion in Pakistan can force Mr. Asif Ali Zardari to initiate nuclear strikes against India. What is the possibility of India achieving a decisive victory in the case of a war with Pakistan now? In my opinion, the moment India and Pakistan went nuclear sometimes in 1998 they lost the opportunity to have decisive victories to either side in all future India Pakistan conflicts.

Even a one week war with Pakistan using conventional weapons has been estimated to cost India a huge sum. If the war were to go nuclear, the cost to India could be mind-blowing. Three of India’s most prosperous states Maharashtra, Gujarat and Punjab would be easy targets to Pakistani armed forces, which would mean industrial productivity, trade and commerce in these states would affected further denting India’s economic ability. And the most important consequence of any war, the loss of human lives would be enormous in the case of a nuclear conflict. The war would also mean the withdrawal of Pakistani army stationed in their western borders leading to more terrorists having easy access to Pakistan.

If we do not understand the possible scale of human suffering that this war would cause and want to go to war with Pakistan, then we are dumb. If we understand the possible quantum of destruction that this war would cause, but would still want to go to war, then we are heartless. Any war with either the terror camps within Pakistan or with the Pakistani army is going to cause loses of civilian life within Pakistan. This would lead to public anger in Pakistan; the most obvious beneficiaries of this will be the terrorists themselves against whom we are planning to wage a war. To quote George Soros, ‘We should not become victims who turned perpetrators, creating more victims who would become perpetrators themselves creating more victims eventually’ setting off a vicious cycle.

India has everything to lose from going to war with Pakistan. We will have to bear huge loses to life and property and the war will be a huge monetary burden on us. Public opinion in Pakistan will once again turn favorable to the Pakistani army. International community might consider that we are violating Pakistan’s sovereignty. On top of all this, the possibility of a decisive victory looks very low. In the light of the all the negative consequences of the war with Pakistan, diplomacy is our only hope and the only possible solution for lasting peace in South Asia.